Work
Plan
For
Challenge Cost-Share Agreement
Between
USDA
Forest Service, Southwestern Region
And
The
Nature Conservancy, Arizona and New Mexico Chapters
This
work plan covers tasks to be completed in three strategic focal areas
identified by the U.S. Forest Service Region 3 as necessary to meet regional
priorities, including preparation of Forest Plan revisions. Five of Region
3’s 11 forests are scheduled to begin Forest Plan revisions in fiscal year
2006; five are scheduled to initiate plan revisions in fiscal year 2007; one
Forest (Coronado) has already initiated its plan revision.
Region 3’s Strategic Action Plan
identifies the ‘restoration of functionality of fire-adapted systems’
as a priority goal. Forest Plan
revisions provide an opportunity for Forests to propose strategies for
accomplishing this goal. Region 3
has identified 6 essential components needed to formulate ecological-based
management objectives and meet the requirements of Forest Plan Regulations.
This work plan addresses three priority tasks, including:
(1)
Assessment of Assessments, a review of information developed since the last
round of Land and Resource Management Plans that will enable the Forest Service
to satisfy information standards established under new planning rules and to
ensure that the best available scientific information is integrated into the
development of Forest Plans.
(2)
Determining the Historical/Natural Range of Variations for major vegetation
types and the biological diversity they harbor. HRV characterizations provide a
baseline for evaluating the short- and long-term effects of natural and
anthropogenic disturbances on forest resources. The historical range of
variation in disturbance regimes, and climatic effects on these regimes, is the
foundation for developing models of vegetative change.
(3)
Develop Models of Vegetative Change for major Southwestern vegetation types.
Development of ecological models for vegetation types will enable the Forest
Service to evaluate management activities and better incorporate the role of
ecological processes in forest management.
The
Nature Conservancy will establish a team of ecologists from the Arizona and New
Mexico Chapters to work with the Forest Service over an 18-month period to
complete tasks identified under the three strategic areas. The following pages
contain detailed statements of work to be completed. A basic summary of need,
the approach that would be used to carry out the work and an itemized list of
deliverables is included in each. A table charting the timeframe for
deliverables and a budget for the 18-month project period are also
provided. Finally, we have
provided a statement of qualifications that summarizes the experience of
Conservancy staff relative to the proposed work.
I.
ASSESSMENT OF ASSESSMENTS
Background:
Forest Plan revisions will be guided by forest planning
rules and strategic goals established at national, regional and Forest levels.
‘The extent to which strategic goals may be accomplished in a timely
manner will, in part, be a function of the information base available on the
status and ecological condition of forest lands and the relationship between
forest conditions and the status of biological diversity. Region 3 is planning
to convene a workshop for forest planners, biologists and researchers to
identify and evaluate the relevance of available ecological and conservation
assessments. An expected outcome of the workshop is a better understanding of
and commitment to use ecological assessments in Forest Plan revisions. An
additional, likely outcome will be a set of standards, criteria or common
understanding about the types of assessment information that would be most
useful, both for evaluating new assessment information that comes to light as
well identifying new assessment information that will be important to collect
in the future. Standards will
facilitate an efficient literature and data review, which will be an ongoing
process important to parts II and III of this proposal. Standards will also
enable us to evaluate the utility of
USFS legacy data sets, or those data still in paper form that have not
been integrated into electronic, corporate data sets but may contain
information that meets standards for needed assessment
information.
Approach:
The Nature Conservancy began developing ecoregional
conservation assessments in 1996. Ecoregional assessments synthesize multiple
types of scientific data to identify the most important areas to maintain
biological diversity and the ecological processes that perpetuate ecosystem
dynamics and sustain habitat across the landscape. They include contemporary
analyses of traditional and new data sources. Collectively, they represent the
most comprehensive analyses of biological diversity
available.
The Conservancy will participate in the Forest
Service-sponsored workshop presenting results from ecoregional assessments,
including infonnalion on the distribution of important conservation areas and
the conservation targets found within identified areas; results of the
grassland assessment conducted in Arizona and now being implemented in New
Mexico, with particular emphasis on results relating to the role of fire in
maintaining this major biome of the Southwest; results from fire regime
condition assessments conducted for the region and for particular landscapes;
and results of an aquatic assessment prepared for Arizona, focusing on native
fishes. Presentation will include a review of the criteria used to select
conservation targets and the systems supporting targets, and how this approach
may be relevant to forest plan revisions. Sufficient background on how the
assessments were developed will be provided to enable workshop participants to
evaluate the utility of the data.
The workshop will present the first opportunity to
review assessment information developed by TNC and others. Parts II and III of
this work plan will involve ongoing evaluation and integration of assessment
information into the Forest Plan revision process. Moreover, assessment
information will be critical to informing the subsequent components of work
outlined in this proposal (parts II & III). Therefore, we will continually
review, evaluate, and integrate, where warranted, new or existing assessment
information into the deliverables outlined in this proposal. Additional assessment information will
be sought from primary and secondary literature sources, and government,
academic, and private institutional sources.
Deliverables:
1) Presentation and interpretation of Conservancy
scientific assessments at the Forest Service-sponsored assessment of
assessments workshop.
2) Standards and criteria, developed collaboratively
with Regional staff, for identifying and evaluating existing data that will be
useful for Forest Plan revisions.
3) Reports or annotated bibliographies that identify
and describe the scientific information sources that promise to be most useful
in the ecological assessment phase of the Forest Plan revision
process.
4) Provide TNC ecological assessment data in the forms
that would be most useful to the Forest Service — databases, narrative
reports, spatial data, or other.
II. Determining Historical/Natural Range of
Variation
Background:
‘Ecosystem diversity’ and ‘ecological
sustainability’ have been identified by USFS as key concepts guiding the
development of Forest Plan revisions. Ecosystem diversity across a landscape is
a function of potential natural vegetation types disturbance regimes,
succession, and competition for resources under shifting climatic patterns that
influence ecosystems across spatial and temporal dimensions. Understanding the
result of this type of change, relative to the distribution and abundance of
major vegetation types, habitat, and, ultimately, populations of
forest-dependent organisms, is at the heart of understanding the historical or
natural range of variation (HRV). Return intervals for fire, pests and disease
outbreaks, the composition and structure of vegetation, and the response of
forest-dependent organisms are all important components in describing the
variation of ecosystems.
The overlay of anthropogenic activities within forests
represents another type of disturbance that shifts the trajectories and
relative proportions of ecosystem types, which, in turn, changes the abundance
and distribution of forest resources, such as sensitive species. Managing the
proportions of ecosystem types and their trajectories such that forest
resources remain viable is the basis for "ecological sustainability”
Characterizing the various facets of HRV for ecosystem types found on Forest
lands will require synthesizing information on the spatial and temporal
variation in disturbance regimes, which will provide model input for ecological
modeling described in part III of this proposal. This synthesis should also
provide an important baseline from which to (1) identify desired future
conditions; (2) assess the benefits and limitations of forest management
practices (further articulated in part III of this proposal); (3) make
predictions about the responses of forest organisms to management practices
that can be tested in an adaptive management and monitoring system and (4)
determine information gaps that limit our understanding of key ecosystem
components and their function.
Approach:
In conjunction with Regional and Forest-level staff TNC
will identify the most appropriate sub-regional scale or unit of analysis on
which to characterize HRV and to perform ecological modeling specified in part
III. Available data sources to determine the base unit of analysis (vegetation
component) include, Gap Vegetation, Terrestrial Ecosystem Surveys, General
Ecosystem Surveys, Land Type Associations, Forest Inventory Analysis, and
Potential Natural Vegetation. These data sauces will be evaluated for
completeness across Forests and scale of resolution. We estimate that, at the
coarsest level, HRV would be characterized for 15 or more potential natural
vegetation types (Appendix I for preliminary list).
HRVs, ultimately, will be compiled from primary and
secondary literature sources, supplemented with input by regional experts. The
final determination of the appropriate sub-regional unit of analysis will
likely be based on matching reasonably complete vegetation/system data sets
with an adequate literature base on disturbance regimes, successional pathways
and climatic patterns from which to derive meaningful HRV
characterizations.
Data permitting HRV characterizations will focus on
attributes such as vegetation composition and structure over large and small
scales, patch size, patch dynamics, frequency and types of disturbance regimes
(frequency, intensity, spatial extent, seasonality, etc.) and how climatic
variability affects interactions among variables.
Data on select wildlife species will be synthesized to
determine known and likely population responses to major natural or
anthropogenic disturbance regimes operating across the landscape at different
spatial and temporal scales. These analyses will provide a basis from which to
evaluate effects to target species from various forest management strategies,
and to establish testable hypotheses that could be evaluated under an adaptive
management and monitoring system. Analysis at this level will enhance the
Forest’s overall ability to propose management strategies that will meet
the “ecological sustainability’ standard set forth in Forest Plan
regulations. Target species will be selected based on discussions with Regional
and Forest-level staff
Deliverables:
1) Base vegetation data set - utilizing one or more of
the base data sets identified above-covering all Region 3 Forests attributed
with available data on HRV.
2) Spatial data set depicting locations with empirical
infirmation on disturbance regimes and accompanying photo documentation of
conditions where available.
3) Narrative and tabular syntheses of HRV attributes
for each ecosystem unit suitable for use or inclusion in planning and
environmental analysis documents.
4) Annotated bibliography for all primary, secondary
and expert resources consulted in the development of HRV
characterizations.
5) Narrative synthesis of literature and data on how
managing for historical range of variability will affect populations of select
wildlife species.
6) Training sessions for Forest staff in HRV
results.
III Developing Models of Vegetative
Change
Background:
Ecological models provide an important
basis from which to conduct adaptive management and monitoring programs. They
provide researchers with predictive capability and managers with a tool to
evaluate management activities. State-and-transition models are particularly
useful for understanding changes across ecosystems. By characterizing the
direction and types of changes in vegetation states as a result of disturbance
and succession, state-and-transition models enable users to better understand
forest dynamics. Predicting directional changes in vegetation states enables
managers to predict changes in forest habitat, which then can be used to
predict and evaluate changes in the populations of forest organisms.
Quantitative state-and-transition models also make it possible to conduct
landscape scenario analyses that planners can use to compare predicted outcomes
of alternative management regimes. Inherent to the restoration of fire adapted
systems is the notion of change, so model development will play a central role
in enabling the Forest Service to understand change and evaluate desired future
conditions.
Approach:
TNC
will use the Vegetation Dynamic Development Tool (VDDT) to complete
state-and-transition models for major vegetation types. We will collaboratively
identify the appropriate ecosystem classification unit and scale of models, and
therefore number to be completed, based on an assessment of the scale of
current vegetation data with data on disturbance regimes and vegetation
effects. Available data sources to evaluate include, Gap Vegetation,
Terrestrial Ecosystem Surveys, General Ecosystem Surveys, Land Type
Associations, Forest Inventory Analysis and Potential Natural Vegetation. We
estimate that, at the coarsest level, HRV would be characterized for 15 or more
potential natural vegetation types (see Appendix 1 for preliminary list).
Models will be developed through a combination of data from primary and
secondary literature sources supplemented by input from regional experts.
Models will be subjected to review by peers in jointly selected private
institutions, agendas, and universities.
TNC will work with Forest staff to identify potential
management scenarios and treatments to facilitate scenario analyses at the
Forest level. To facilitate widespread and consistent use of VDDT models within
Region 3 TNC will hold training sessions for Forest staff in conjunction with
training associated with HRV identified in section II of this
proposal.
Deliverables:
1) A
select set of VDDT models for major vegetation/ecosystem units identified
jointly by TNC and the Forest Service and model output describing forest
states. Models
will
provide basis fix determining natural vegetation, historical range of
variability, Desired Future Conditions and subsequent scenario analysis using
different management treatments.
2)
Supporting documentation for key attributes and assumptions built into
models.
3)
Training sessions for Forest staff on development and use of VDDT models
for landscape management scenario analysis.
Appendix 1. Preliminary list of Potential Natural
Vegetation Types for which HRV and
VDDT
would be based.
1)
Madrean pine-oak woodland
2)
Madrean encinal woodland
3)
Ponderosa pine (up to 4 types)
4)
Chaparral (up to 2 types; Staler and Madrean)
5)
Mixed conifer (up to 2 types; Madrean and Rocky Mountain)
6)
Gallery coniferous riparian treats
7)
Mixed broadleaf deciduous riparian forest
8)
Cottonwood-willow riparian forest
9)
Spruce-fir forest
10)
Aspen
11)
Montane willow riparian forest
12)
Pinyon-Juniper woodland (up to 2 types)
13)
Grassland/savannah (up to 3 types; semi-desert, Montane Great
Basin)
14)
Sub-alpine grassland
15)
Sagebrush